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DAILY COMMODITY NEWSLETTER
Written 08/17/05 for 08/18/05
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The 10-8 bands are bearish for September S&P 500 E-mini
The parabolic indicator is on a sell signal
The parabolic sell says a trading top is probably inThe S&P looks to have made a 1-2-3 top
Which would signal lower prices from hereWe are short from 1235.00 - on the parabolic indicator sell
And with todays action can move the stop if wrong from 1249.00 to 1239.00===================================
December Bonds have moved completely above the 10-8 bands
That puts the odds in favor of a bull swing higherA good try to go long would be to
Buy at 116-05
Stop if wrong @ 114-23116-05 is just above todays 08/16/05 high
114-23 is just below the 08/12/05 low==================================
The September Dollar is trading below the 10-8 bands
Which means the trend is downThe Dollar has rallied up to the uppper band
Odds are that will be a resistence levelIf the Dollar continue higher and moves above the bands
Then that would turn the picture bullishStill bearish for today
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December Gold put in a parabolic sell signal today
A trading top may be in
We'll watch here for a few days==================================
October Crude Oil sold off today
Putting in a parabolic sell signal
We'll watch here for now===================================
The 14 day CCI momentum indicator
Shows November Lumber is oversold
And making a bullish divergence
Lumber is probably close to a trading lowWe bought November Lumber on the open today at 280.00
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The 14 day Directional Movement indicator
Shows that December Cocoa is picking up steam on the downside
We'll look for lower prices from here=================================
October Sugar looks to have put in a head and shoulders top
Sugar is trading below the 10-8 bands
And on a parabolic sell signal
That combination puts the odds with more downside from hereWe went short at 9.76
And have a stop if wrong @ 10.16=================================
December Coffee is probably putting in a 5th wave low
We'll look for a rally from here=================================
From the last low October Lean Hogs may have put in
An Elliott ABC 4th wave correctionTodays new closing high, came in on a bearish divergence
Odds favor a break lower from here in Lean Hogs===================================
October Live Cattle is in a downtrend
Trading below the 10-8 bands and on a parabolic indicator sell
Odds are with more downside from here===================================
The Feeder Cattle Trade put out a few nights ago is still good to try
Trade===================================
The 4-9-18 exponential moving averages
Have moved to bearish for December Corn
That puts the odds with lower pricesCorn has also moved below the 40 day simple moving average = bearish
We went short at 2.42
And with todays action will moveOur trailing stop from 2.38 to 2.35
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The 4-9-18 exponentials and the 18-40 day simple moving averages
Have moved to bearish for November BeansThe odds are with lower prices from here
We went short at 6.79
And will move the trailing stop from 6.79 to 6.72===================================
The 4-9-18 exponentials and the 18-40 day simple moving averages
Have moved to bearish for December WheatWe went short at 3.38
And will move the trailing stop from 3.48 to 3.44===================================
September Oats are trading below the 10-8 bands = bearish
Oats are also below the 40 day simple = bearishWe went short at 1.66
And will move the trailing stop from 1.66 to 1.60==================================
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